基于STIRPAT模型研究南京碳排放的影响因素

Study on Influencing Factors of CO_(2) Emission in Nanjing Based on STIRPAT Model

在巴黎气候变化大会上,中国政府提出了“2030年左右实现碳达峰,并争取尽快实现”的新阶段目标。城市是能源资源消耗和CO2排放的集聚区域,城市化产生的碳排放是当今中国影响气候变化的重要因素。文章采用南京1997~2017年21年数据,从人口规模、财富水平、城市化水平、技术水平、产业结构、国际贸易水平、科技创新能力七个方面选取更符合南京国情的社会经济变量建立STIRPAT模型,研究影响南京市碳排放的主要因素。结果表明:人口总量和城市化率是影响南京碳排放的主要因素。

The Chinese government at the Paris climate change conference proposed a new phase goal of“achieving the peak of carbon emissions around 2030 and striving to reach the peak as soon as possible”.Cities are the gathering areas of energy resources consumption and carbon dioxide emissions.Carbon dioxide produced by urbanization is an important factor affecting climate change in China.Based on Nanjing's data from 1997~2017,this paper selects the socio-economic variables more in line with Nanjing's situation from the seven dimensions of population size,wealth level,urbanization level,technological level,industrial structure,international trade level and scientific and technological innovation ability to establish a STIRPAT model,explores the main factors affecting Nanjing's carbon emissions.