基于TELEMAC-2D模型分析不同洪涝情景对城市应急响应时间的影响

Impact of various flood scenarios on urban emergency responses times based on the TELEMAC-2D model

暴雨洪涝灾害会淹没城市路网进而导致交通与公共服务的中断,增加应急救援时间。该文采用TELEMAC-2D模型模拟了前山河流域五十年一遇与百年一遇设计暴雨情景下的淹没过程,分析了不同的暴雨洪涝情景下前山河流域的医院、消防和公安救援的响应时间。结果表明:在无暴雨洪涝情景下,研究区域内医院、消防和公安的平均可达时间分别为19、24和15.8 min。五十年一遇的暴雨洪涝情景下,城市部分道路被淹没,医院、消防和公安对研究区域的平均响应时间分别增加到133.7、241.8和201 min,远大于无暴雨洪涝情景。百年一遇暴雨洪涝情景下,大部分道路被淹没,医院、消防和公安对研究区域的平均响应时间分别达到220.1、366和304 min,仅站点周边地区可以得到快速响应,其余地区均无法及时响应。暴雨洪涝对城市应急响应能力的影响显著,及时改善城市路网可以避免造成更大的损失。基于TELEMAC-2D模型模拟的城市暴雨洪涝与应急响应能力评估方法,对城市洪灾的应对具有重要意义,可为城市精细化应急管理提供科学支撑。

Pluvial floods can inundate urban road networks which then disrupts traffic flows and public services;thereby,increasing emergency response times.This study used the TELEMAC-2 D model to simulate flooding of the Qianshanhe catchment for 50 and 100 year design rainstorms to analyze the response times of hospital ambulances,fire station emergency vehicles and police vehicles in the Qianshanhe catchment for various flooding scenarios.The results show that the average ambulance response time without flooding is 19 min,the average emergency vehicle response time is 24 min and the average police vehicle response time is 15.8 min.The 50 year flood scenario will flood some of the roads which will reduce the average ambulance response time to 133.7 min,the average emergency vehicle response time to 241.8 min and the average police vehicle response time to 201 min,which are much longer than the response times without flooding.The 100 year scenario will flood most roads which will reduce the average ambulance response time to 220.1 min,the average emergency vehicle response time to 366 min and the average police vehicle response time to 304 min.Only areas near the hospitals,fire stations or police stations will get rapid responses,while other areas will get very slow responses.These results show that flooding will significantly affect emergency response times and that roads need to be improved to avoid greater losses.The TELEMAC-2 D model is very useful for analyzing the effects of flooding and the emergency response capabilities for urban flooding for urban emergency management.