中国出口技术含量地域结构变迁及变化动因

Geographical Structure Change and Driving Factors of Technological Content of Chinese Export

研究目标:廓清中国分企业所有制的出口技术含量地域结构及变化动因。研究方法:基于区分内外资全球投入产出模型的出口技术含量和反事实分析法。研究发现:中国内外资企业出口中来自(内资企业)国内技术含量的比重逐渐强化,表明中国出口实现了一定程度的本土技术升级。对计算机业分析发现,其出口国外技术含量地域结构具有稳定性,但趋于下降,而来自内资企业国内技术含量的贡献不断上升。质和量均对中国出口国内技术含量具有正向促进效应,但更多依赖最终生产工序技术含量的提升。研究创新:首次将中国内外资企业生产异质性纳入分析范畴,科学分析出口技术含量地域结构变迁及变化动因。研究价值:准确理解中国对外贸易技术含量水平与升级。

Research Objectives: Clarifying the geographical structure change and driving factor of technological content of Chinese export considering China’s firm heterogeneity. Research Methods: Decomposing the total technological contents of an economy’s export by geographical source, and employing counterfactual analysis to delve into the driving factors. Research Findings: For the both foreign and domestically-owned firms, the domestic technological content(arising from domestically-owned firm) in China’s export is on the rise, indicating that China’s export has achieved technological upgrading to some degree. The investigation in China’s computer, electronic and optical equipment export shows that the geographical structure of foreign technological content exerts stability, but their shares are declining. At the same time, the domestic technological content arising from domestically-owned firm increases. Counterfactual analysis shows that both “quality” and “quantity” have positive effects on the domestic technology content in China’s exports, in which the “quality” resulting from the increasing level of the technical content of final production process has a stronger effect than “quantity”. Research Innovations: Considering the heterogeneity of firm ownership, this paper scientifically examines the geographical structure change and driving factor of technological content of Chinese export. Research Value: Accurately understanding the level and upgrading of China’s export.