早熟的代价:保持制造业发展的理由和对策

Price of Prematurity:Why and How Should China Maintain Its Manufacturing Strength?

中国制造业的显示性比较优势指数和增加值占GDP比重的下降,无疑与人口机会窗口的逐渐关闭有直接的关系。然而,进一步分析中国目前所处阶段的产业发展潜力,并从统计上进行国际比较,可以得出的结论是,中国制造业传统比较优势并未完全丧失,新优势潜力巨大,因此,制造业比重下降是一种早熟的表现。这个趋势的延续,将显著缩短资源重新配置的链条,挤压生产率提高的潜力空间,从而过早、过速削弱中国经济增长的潜在能力。稳定制造业增长和经济占比,需要从更新产业政策理念和实践出发,通过扩大资源配置范围、促进增长的分享性、增强发展的可持续性,使制造业成为高质量发展的重要引擎。

As its population opportunity window rapidly closes,the comparative advantage of China’s manufacturing tends to diminish and the share of manufacturing in its economy has been declining.However,analysis of China’s manufacturing competitive edge at the current stage and a statistics-based international comparison suggest that while its manufacturing has not completely lost its traditional comparative advantage,it has a great potential of developing new advantages.This implies that the declining share of manufacturing is premature.If the share of manufacturing continues to decline,it will significantly shorten the resource reallocation chain,squeeze the room for productivity improvement,and,therefore,weaken the growth potential of the Chinese economy.To stabilize the growth and share of manufacturing,it is necessary for China to update industrial policy concepts and practices,and make the manufacturing industry an important engine for its high-quality development through expanding the scope of resource allocation,promoting the sharing of growth,and enhancing the sustainability of development.