基于灰色系统理论的江西省水果产量研究

Study on Fruit Yield in Jiangxi Province Based on Grey System Theory

为了给十四五期间江西省水果产业的发展提供决策依据,采用GM(1,1)动态模型和马尔科夫模型相结合的方法,对江西省水果产业现状和未来发展进行定量分析。结果表明:江西省水果产业存在产业化程度不高、苗木繁育体系不完善、营销手段单一等亟待解决的问题;十四五期间,江西省各主要水果的产量整体上处于增长趋势,到十四五末水果总产量可达到680.70万t,其中主要水果橘子、脐橙、柑橘的产量将分别达到391.68、185.62、57.01万t。从江西省水果产业的发展情况看,应采取培养龙头企业、健全良种繁育体系、针对性创意营销、加强组织领导等措施,以保障江西水果产业的健康发展。

In order to provide decision-making basis for the development of fruit industry in Jiangxi Province during the 14th Five Year-Plan period,this paper uses the method of combining GM(1,1)dynamic model and Markov mod⁃el,makes a quantitative analysis on the current situation and future development of fruit industry in Jiangxi Province,The results show that there are some urgent problems to be solved in Jiangxi fruit industry,such as low degree of in⁃dustrialization,imperfect seedling breeding system and single marketing means;During the 14th Five Year-Plan pe⁃riod,the output of main fruits in Jiangxi Province is on the overall growth trend.By the end of the 14th Five Year-Plan period,the total output of fruits will reach 6.807 million tons,of which the output of main fruits orange,navel or⁃ange and citrus will reach 3.9168 million tons,1.8562 million tons and 0.5701 milliontons respectively.According to the development of fruit industry in Jiangxi Province,it is suggested to take countermeasures such as cultivating lead⁃ing enterprises,perfecting improved seed breeding system,targeted creative marketing and strengthening organiza⁃tion and leadership to ensure the healthy development of fruit industry in Jiangxi Province.