基于风险梯度的化工企业事故风险定量评估

Quantitative assessment of accident risk in chemical enterprises based on risk gradient

为了定量分析区域内重大危险源所构成的风险,为事故风险防控提供科学依据,基于风险场理论对某区域内2家化工企业进行风险分析,得出2家企业所对应的风险值计算公式,并生成2家企业所对应的风险等值面和风险等值线;引入最速下降法,利用负梯度搜寻风险的最快下降方向,得出事故的最优风险降低路径。研究结果表明:甲企业中接近1/2的区域为Ⅲ级风险区域,其余区域为Ⅱ级风险区域,乙企业中大部分区域为Ⅱ级风险区域,仅少部分区域属于Ⅲ级风险区域。相较而言,乙企业中5条最优风险降低路径里程更短,人员分配情况更为合理,更具安全优势;甲企业事故风险更大,更需要完善相关安全措施以免发生事故。

In order to quantitatively analyze the risk of major hazard installations in the area and provide scientific basis for the accident risk prevention and control,the risk analysis of two chemical enterprises in a certain area was carried out based on the risk field theory.The calculation formulas of risk value corresponding to two enterprises were obtained,and the risk isosurface and risk isoline of two enterprises were generated.The steepest descent method was introduced to search the fastest descent direction of risk by using the negative gradient,and the optimal path of accident risk reduction was obtained.The results showed that nearly half of the areas in enterprise A were the third-level risk areas,and the rest were the second-level risk areas.Most areas in enterprise B were the second-level risk areas,only a small part of the areas were the third-level risk areas.In comparison,the five optimal risk reduction paths in enterprise B had the shorter mileage,more reasonable personnel allocation,and more safety advantage.Enterprise A had a greater accident risk and needed to improve the relevant safety measures to avoid the accidents.