基于集对分析-吸收马尔可夫链的铁路移动通信系统安全动态评估

Dynamic assessment on safety of railway mobile communication system based on set pair analysis and absorbing Markov chain

为了更有效地评估和防范铁路数字移动通信系统(GSM-R)的安全风险,针对未考虑系统不同时期系统风险状况不同、研究多局限于静态评估的不足,提出基于马尔可夫链的风险指数量化计算方法,构建基于集对分析-吸收马尔可夫链的铁路数字移动通信系统(GSM-R)风险评估模型。首先使用吸收马尔可夫链对通信系统风险进行定量计算,运用集对分析关联度的同一性、差异性和矛盾性动态分析通信系统安全风险的趋势,通过结合马尔可夫链计算下一阶段的关联度以获得通信系统最终安全风险评估结果,选取通信系统6个时间段数据进行分析,并进行验证。结果表明:本文评估方法能实现铁路数字移动通信系统(GSM-R)安全风险的全面动态评估,验证通信系统安全风险动态评估模型的科学性、有效性和可行性。

In order to assess and prevent the safety risk of railway digital mobile communication system(GSM-R)more effectively,aiming at the deficiencies that the system risk status in different periods of the system is different and the research is mostly limited to static assessment,a quantitative calculation method of risk index based on the Markov chain was proposed,and a risk assessment model of GSM-R based on the set pair analysis and absorbing Markov chain was constructed.Firstly,the risk of communication system was calculated quantitatively by the absorbing Markov chain,then the trend of safety risk of the communication system was dynamically analyzed by using the identity,difference and contradiction of correlation degree of the set pair analysis,and the final assessment results of the safety risk of communication system were obtained by combining with Markov chain to calculate the correlation degree of the next stage.The data of six time periods of the communication system were selected to analyze and verify the proposed assessment.The results showed that the assessment method could realize the comprehensive dynamic assessment on the safety risk of GSM-R,and the established dynamic assessment model on the safety risk of communication system was scientific,effective and feasible.