区域一体化缘何停步不前?——欧亚经济联盟的启示

Why is Regional Integration Stalled?——Enlightenment from the Eurasian Economic Union

诸多地区经济组织成立之后,继续深化区域一体化困难重重。基于国际政治经济学,采取动态的视角,本文认为,区域一体化的深化建立在经济收益较好和领导国具有较强的领导能力上。地区经济组织运行后,如果参与国从一体化中获取的收益不明显,并存在收益分配不公的现象,将成为一体化深化的经济障碍;如果领导国提供公共产品的能力下降,领导合法性削弱,将成为一体化深化的政治障碍。欧亚经济联盟成立5年来,原定的一体化计划难以实现,2025年实现经济联盟的目标落空,原因在于:一方面,参与国并未从一体化中获得较多的经济收益;另一方面,西方国家对俄罗斯的经济制裁,削弱了其对一体化的领导能力和领导合法性。鉴于对欧亚经济联盟运行的分析,它未来难免有一体化空洞化的风险。

After the establishment of many regional economic organizations,difficulties will continue to deepen while regional integration often gets stalled.Based on international political economy and adopting a dynamic perspective,this article argues that the deepening of regional integration is dependent on economic benefits and the leadership of the leading country.In the operation of the regional economic organization,lack of obvious benefits for the participating countries and unfair distribution of benefits will pose economic obstacles to the deepening of integration;if the leading country’s ability to provide public goods decreases and the legitimacy of leadership weakens,political obstacles to the deepening integration will also emerge.Five years after the establishment of the Eurasian Economic Union,the original integration plan remains difficult to implement,and the goal of achieving economic union by 2025 is failing.The reason is double-fold:on the one hand,the participating countries have not gained considerable economic benefits from integration;on the other hand,the economic sanctions imposed by Western countries on Russia have weakened its leadership and leadership legitimacy in integration.In view of the operation analysis of the Eurasian Economic Union,there is an inevitable risk of hollowing out of integration in the future.