中央调剂制度对省际养老保险降费空间及其均匀性的影响

The Influence of Central Adjustment System on the Room of Premium Reduction for Social Pension Schemes and Its Uniformity across Provinces

本文通过构建中央调剂制度干预前后我国省级养老保险降费空间模型,测算2018~2025年中央调剂制度对各省养老保险降费空间的影响,发现中央调剂制度能够使"贡献省份"均衡降费空间为负,"受益省份"均衡降费空间为正,基尼系数和Pietra-Ricci指数测算结果同样表明,中央调剂制度能够使各省名义降费空间趋同。然而,中央调剂制度并不能使"受益省份"名义降费空间不足且逐渐萎缩的情况逆转,而且还面临部分"贡献省份"不具备完全"贡献"条件的问题。不同政策内外生参数与调剂比例以"促进基金可持续"为导向进行叠加调整能够进一步扩大"受益省份"名义降费空间,但"贡献省份"名义降费空间的变化方向和幅度由政策内外生参数对名义降费空间的扩张幅度和中央调剂制度对名义降费空间的缩减幅度决定。为此,建议加速推进养老保险全国统筹,同时落实扩面征缴、夯实费基、提高财政补贴力度等政策,只调基础养老金并合理确定上调比例。

The actuarial models of provincial pension premium reduction before and after the intervention of the Central Adjustment System(CAS)were constructed to calculate the influence of the CAS on the room of provincial pension premium reduction from 2018 to 2025.It was found that the balanced room of premium reduction of“contributing provinces”was negative,and that of“beneficiary provinces”was positive after the intervention of the CAS.The Gini coefficient and Pietra-Ricci index also showed that the CAS made the nominal room of premium reduction converge in each province.But the CAS couldn′t reverse the situation that the nominal premium reduction room of“beneficiary provinces”was insufficient and gradually shrinking.And some“contributing provinces”didn′t have the conditions of full contribution.The overlapping adjustments using different endogenous and exogenous policy parameters and adjustment proportions under the guidance of“promoting fund sustainability”could further expand the nominal room of premium reduction of“beneficiary provinces”,but the nominal premium reduction′s direction of change and range of change of“contributing provinces”were determined by the expansion effect on the nominal premium reduction by different endogenous and exogenous policy parameters and the shrinking effect on the nominal premium reduction by the CAS.Therefore,the paper suggested to accelerate the national pooling of social pension insurance,implement policies such as expanding the collection,consolidating the contribution base and increasing fiscal subsidies,adjust the basic pension only,and reasonably determine the pension adjustment ratio.