地方政府财政治理能力的测度及时空演化

Indicator Measure and Spatial-Temporal Evolution of Local Financial Governance Capacity

基于2009—2019年全国31个省份数据,对地方政府财政治理能力的综合特征、时空格局、空间相关性、空间聚类和热点区域演化进行研究。实证研究表明:2009—2019年全国各省域治理能力均出现大幅提升,但财政治理水平的相对差异呈不断扩大趋势。各省域财政治理能力在空间上聚类不显著,无大范围的高值或低值集聚区,但仍然出现了小范围的高聚类区,空间近邻效应逐渐显现。从空间格局上看,热点区、次热点区分布格局变化较大。热点区域、次热区域主要集中在东部沿海地区和华中地区,其中热点区域呈现由南向北演化的趋势。在地方政府债务规模仍居高位的情况下,应充分重视财政治理能力的科学测度、区域差异和时空演化特征,构建财力协调和区域均衡的地方财政治理新格局。

Based on the data of 31 provinces of China from 2009 to 2019,this paper studies the comprehensive characteristics,spatial and temporal pattern,spatial correlation,spatial clustering and hot regional evolution of government financial capacity.The empirical study shows that the governance capacity of all provinces in China has been greatly improved from 2009 to 2019,but the relative difference in the level of financial governance shows a trend of expansion.Moreover,the spatial clustering of the financial governance capacity of provinces and cities is not significant.Although there is no large range of high or low value clustering areas,there is still a small range of high clustering areas,and the spatial nearest neighbor effect appears gradually.From the perspective of spatial pattern,the distribution pattern of hot point area and sub-hot point area changes greatly.The hot spots and sub-hot areas are mainly concentrated in the eastern coastal areas and central China,in which the hot spots tend to evolve from south to north.Therefore,under the condition that the scale of local government debt is still high,the central government should pay full attention to the scientific measurement of local financial governance capacity,regional differences and the evolution characteristics of time and space pattern,and build a new pattern of local financial governance with financial coordination and regional balance.