黄河流域人地协调高质量发展时空演变及其影响因素研究

Temporal and spatial evolution of human land coordinated high-quality development in the Yellow River basin

协调高质量发展是时代要求。基于区域PRED(人口、资源、环境、发展)协调发展理论,构建黄河流域人地协调高质量发展评价体系,利用探索性空间分析和地理加权回归模型剖析2010-2019年黄河流域人地协调高质量发展时空演变及其影响因素。研究表明:1)2010-2019年黄河流域人地协调高质量发展水平呈上升趋势。2)全局空间正相关性显著,部分呈高-高、低-低集聚的分布特征,高-高集聚区由黄河下游向中游延伸。3)科技创新是驱动黄河流域人地协调高质量发展的关键,工业集聚由正向演变为负向影响,各影响因素在演变过程中存在显著的空间异质性。

Coordinating high-quality development is the requirement of the times. Based on the theory of regional PRED(Population, Resource, Environment, Development) coordinated development, an evaluation system for human land coordinated high-quality development in the Yellow River basin was constructed. The exploratory spatial analysis and geographically weighted regression were used to analyze the temporal and spatial evolution and influencing factors of human land coordinated high-quality development in the Yellow River basin from 2010 to 2019. The results show that: 1) From 2010 to 2019, the high-quality development level of human land coordination in the Yellow River basin showed an upward trend. 2) The global spatial positive correlation was significant, and the local distribution was characterized by high-high and low-low agglomeration. The high-high agglomeration area extended from the downstream to the midstream. 3) Scientific and technological innovation was the key to driving the coordinated and high-quality development of people and land in the Yellow River basin. Degree of industrial agglomeration has changed from positive impact to negative impact. Influencing factors had significant spatial heterogeneity in the evolution process.