关于中国全要素生产率测度的研究--基于一阶差分对数模型和有效资本存量的再测算

A Study on the Measurement of Total Factor Productivity in China:Re-measurement Based on First Order Differential Logarithm Model and Effective Capital Stock

本文对以往我国全要素生产率测度中存在的问题做了较为系统的分析,试图总结一套科学且具有可操作性的测度方法。本文在区分实际资本存量和有效资本存量的基础上,根据我国资本存量估算数据,采用一阶差分对数模型和有关经济计量学方法,估计资本与劳动的产出弹性,避免了可能出现的"伪回归""序列相关""多重共线性"和"异方差"等问题,从而保证所测度的产出弹性估计值既符合经济理论分析又能通过经济计量学检验。本文还阐述了全要素生产率与广义技术进步这两个指标的联系与区别,并通过实证分析揭示了不同时期两项指标产生差异的原因。实证分析结果表明,改革开放以来全要素生产率提高对促进我国经济增长发挥了重要作用。

This paper makes a systematic analysis on the problems existing in the measurement of total factor productivity in China in the past and tries to summarize a set of scientific and operable measurement methods.In this paper actual capital stock and effective capital stock are distinguished and the latest capital stock data is used as the basic data for the research.Based on these,the output elasticity coefficients of capital and labor are estimated by using the first difference logarithmic model and some econometric methods.The problems such as"pseudo regression""sequence correlation""multi collinearity"and"heteroscedasticity"are avoided by following the above steps.Thus,it ensures that the final model can pass various statistical tests and econometric tests.This paper also points out the relationship and differences between TFP and generalized technological progress.And then the paper reveals the reasons for the differences between the two indicators in different periods through empirical analysis.The results of empirical analysis show that the improvement of TFP has played an important role in promoting China’s economic growth since the reform and opening up.