国际关系中的大国竞争:一项战略研究议程

Great Power Competition in International Relations:A Strategic Research Agenda

大国竞争是国家间互动的重要形态,也是推动世界历史进程的核心要素。当前,中美战略竞争的大幕正在拉开,并引起全球的广泛关注,如何认识和把握国际关系中的大国竞争成为一项迫切需要深入研究的重要议题。文章从历史、理论和现实三个维度剖析大国竞争现象,以中美竞争为主线,对大国竞争的内涵、类型、缘起、战略选择和战略效应等核心问题进行辩证分析。文章认为,大国竞争深刻影响国际格局和权力结构的演变,塑造了国际体系的风貌,对国际体系的稳定提出巨大挑战,给国家的政策选择和外交取向带来重大影响。与此同时,大国竞争可能给其他行为主体带来正外部性,推动世界重大技术的变革与发展,随着时代的进步,大国间的竞合关系将更为普遍。既有研究聚焦大国竞争给国际社会带来的负面效应,忽视大国竞争的正面作用,因此,应采取辩证视角剖析大国竞争,秉持历史分析与国际比较的视角,构建富有中国特色的大国竞争理论;辩证看待大国竞争的战略效应,综合把握大国竞争的前景;关注大国竞争的内部机制运转,丰富大国竞争的分析要素;加强对大国竞争的战略分析,形成有关大国竞争的综合评估框架。

This article analyzes great power competition from three angles:history,theory,and practice and finds that great power competition profoundly impacts the evolution of the international order and of international power structures,shaping the overall contours of the international system,while presenting dramatic challenges to the stability of that system.Great power competition has a significant impact on the policy choices and directions of foreign diplomacy of states.At the same time,great power competition may bring positive externalities to other actors,advancing global technological innovation and progress.As the age of competition progresses,competition between great power will become more universal.Existing research focuses on the negative effects of great power competition,while ignoring the positive impacts that it has on the international community.