基于云模型的平原区洪灾风险等级评价研究

Flood risk assessment in flatarea based on Cloud Model

由区域洪水灾害系统理论从致灾因子、孕灾环境、承灾体和区域应灾能力四个方面建立包括9项指标的洪水灾害风险等级评价指标体系,构建云模型对江苏省2010年洪灾风险等级进行评价。结果表明,苏南地区洪水灾害风险等级较低,为低风险和较低风险分布;苏中地区为中等风险分布;苏北地区差异较大,小部分呈较低风险分布,大部分呈较高风险分布。评价结果和实际情况相吻合,验证了云模型评价洪水灾害风险等级的有效性和适用性。根据评价结果建议中等风险和较高风险地区加强工程性和非工程性措施,做好洪涝灾害防范。

Based on the systematic theory of regional flood disaster,an evaluation index system of flood risk grade including nine indicators is established from four main aspects:disaster inducing factors,disaster-bearing envrionment,disaster-bearing body and disaster-reponsing capacity.A cloud model is constructed to evaluate the flood risk grade in Jiangsu in 2010.The results show that the risk grade of flood disaster in southern Jiangsu is low,which is in respect of a low risk and low risk distribution;however,the risk distribution of central Jiangsu is relatively high,graded at medium;there is a great difference in northern Jiangsu,as a small part of which is graded at low risk distribution while most of them are with a high risk distribution.The evaluation results are consistent with the actual situation,which verifies the effectiveness and applicability of the cloud model in evaluating the risk level of flood disaster.According to the evaluation results,it is suggested that engineering and non-engineering measures should be strengthened in medium-risk and high-risk areas to prevent flood and waterlogging disasters.