基于人水和谐的南水北调中线运行效果评价--以河南典型受水区为例

Assessment on operating effect on the Middle Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project considering human-water harmony:Case of the typical water receiving areas in Henan Province

为合理地分析和评价南水北调中线工程的运行效果,优化工程水资源配置和精准调度,以河南典型受水区为例,基于人水和谐理论,将水资源作为影响经济社会发展的关键因素,构建水资源与经济社会和谐发展评价模型,并对关键时间节点的和谐度进行对比研究。结果显示:河南典型受水区的和谐度从时间维度大致可分为3个阶段:第一阶段在南水北调中线工程建设前(1999—2003年),整体和谐度值在0.5以下,数值较低但呈上升趋势;第二阶段为工程开工后(2003—2008年),部分地区和谐度值达到0.6,但整体和谐度值没有明显上升,有些地方甚至出现下降;第三阶段是工程通水后(2014—2018年),整体和谐度开始上升,最高值达到0.7。从空间维度看,离水源区较近的南阳、许昌两地的和谐度稳步增加,而郑州、平顶山市的和谐度则先增后减。建议省级层面统筹河南省南水北调可用水量,建立水权交易机制,加强高耗水行业管理,提高水资源利用效率。

Since the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project began to supply water in 2014,it has transferred more than 40 billion cubic meters of water and directly benefited 79 million people.However,how to quantitatively evaluate the specific effect of the project and what level the relationship between water resources and economic and social development in the water receiving areas is closely concerned by the national water project management department,the people in the receiving areas.There is need to understood the optimization of water resource allocation and accurate dispatching of the project.Water resources were looked at as a key factor affecting economic and social development.The evaluation model of the harmonious development of water resources and economic society in the water receiving area was constructed based on human-water harmony.Six key time nodes in the typical water receiving area in Henan Province such as before the construction of the project(1999,2000),during the construction period(2003),under construction(2008)and after the water supply of the project(2014,2018)are selected to conduct a comparative study on the harmony between water resources and economy and society in the water receiving areas.The harmony degree of typical water receiving areas in Henan Province can be roughly divided into three stages from the time dimension.The first stage was before the construction of the project(1999-2003),the overall degree was below 0.5,the value was low but showed an upward trend.The second stage was after the commencement of the project(2003-2008),the harmony degree in some places reached 0.6,but the overall degree of harmony has not increased significantly.The third stage was after the water supply of the project(2014-2018),the degree of harmony in each receiving area began to rise again,maximum degree reached 0.7.From the spatial dimension,the harmony degree of Nanyang City and Xuchang City,which were closed to the water source area,basically increased steadily,while that of Zhengzhou City and Pingdingshan City increased and then decreased.In terms of a time dimension,each index showed an inflection point in the year of project commencement 2003.The increase from 1999 to 2003 is due to the rapid development,and potential economic growth of Henan Province.Health,development,and coordination have increased steadily.The health degree decreased from 2003 to 2008.On the one hand,due to the rapid economic development and less attention to environmental protection,the health degree decreased,the total amount of water resources decreased,the water production coefficient decreased,and the overall harmony degree also decreased.From the perspective of spatial dimension,the degree of harmony of Zhengzhou,Xinxiang,Jiaozuo and Xuchang increased,but the degree of harmony of Pingdingshan and Nanyang decreased.The financial crisis in 2007 and drought in different degrees may be the reason behind this decrease.After 2010,the importance of harmonious development started to develop and began to reduce water pollution and the total amount of water resources and water production coefficient rebounded.The degree of harmony generally showed fluctuated upward trend.In 1999,the degree of harmony in most water receiving areas was very low and basically in an inharmonious state.It has been rising from 1999 to 2003,the harmony degree of Pingdingshan and Nanyang reached 0.5 for the first time.However,the upward trend in 2008 was not obvious,and there was a slight decline in some regions.It began to rise steadily from 2008 to 2018.The reason is that the water supply of the Middle Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project in 2014 has alleviated some problems of serious shortage of water resources to a certain extent,such as the restrictions of water shortage on economic development and water pollution on the environment.Moreover,the operation of the project has also brought many opportunities for Henan Province and promoted the vigorous development of the economy,but the degree of harmony between water resources and economy and society is still low.It is suggested that the available water quantity of South-to-North Water Diversion Project in Henan Province should be coordinated at the provincial level,the water right trading mechanism should be established,the management of high water consumption industries should be strengthened,and the utilization efficiency of water resources should be improved.