基于LMDI的北上津区域能源消费碳排放影响因素分析及脱钩效应研究

Analysis of Influencing Factors and Decoupling Effects on Energy Consumption Carbon Emissions in Beijing,Shanghai and Tanjin Based on LMDI

基于2005—2018年能源消费与经济增长的数据,利用对数平均迪氏指数(LMDI)分解分析模型探究北上津能源消费碳排放的影响因素,并利用Tapio脱钩模型研究北上津经济发展与碳排放的脱钩关系。结果显示:经济发展水平和人口规模拉动能源消费碳排放,能源强度和能源结构抑制能源消费碳排放;北上津的经济发展与碳排放大部分年份呈现弱脱钩,少数年份呈现强脱钩,但经济发展与能源消费碳排放之间的脱钩关系愈发明显。研究结果提示,未来北上津应该转变经济增长方式、加强能源技术创新、优化能源结构。

Based on the data of energy consumption and economic growth from 2005 to 2018,the logarithmic mean divisia index(LMDI)decomposition analysis model is used to explore the influencing factors of energy consumption carbon emissions in Beijing,Shanghai and Tanjin,and the Tapio decoupling model is used to study the relationship between economic development of the three cities and carbon emissions.The results show that the level of economic development and population size drive carbon emissions from energy consumption,and energy intensity and energy structure inhibit carbon emissions from energy consumption.The economic development of the three cities and carbon emissions are weakly decoupled in most years,but stongly decoupled in a few years.The decoupling relationship between energy consumption and carbon emissions becomes more and more obvious.According to the research results,in the future,Beijing,Shanghai and Tanjin should transform the economic growth mode,strengthen energy technology innovation,and optimize the energy structure.