基于信息流交互的关键链项目缓冲区确定方法

Method for Determining Critical Chain Project Buffer Based on Information Flow Interaction

考虑到信息流频繁交互带来的返工风险、物质资源紧张等因素对项目工期的影响,提出一种综合考虑信息资源紧张度、成本物质资源紧张度、项目经理偏好程度等因素的关键链缓冲区确定方法。首先,引入设计结构矩阵法及学习曲线,提出活动返工安全时间的计算,并据此确定信息资源紧张度;其次,结合成本高的资源具有替代性差的特点,在确定物质资源紧张度时考虑数量及成本的双重约束;最后,为规避三点估计法度量活动工期带来的主观影响,采用三角概率分布方法确定活动工期风险,基于此计算资源约束下的项目缓冲区。算例仿真结果表明,提出的方法能够有效缩短项目工期,提高项目按时完工率。

Considering frequent interaction of information flow will lead to rework risk, material resources shortage and other factors affecting the project construction period, this paper puts forward a method to determine the critical chain buffer, which comprehensively considers the factors such as information resource shortage, cost material resource shortage and project manager preference. Firstly, introducing the design structure matrix method and learning curve, putting forward the calculation of safety time for activity rework, and determine the information resource tension accordingly;Secondly, considering the poor substitutability of high-cost resources, the dual constraints of quantity and cost are considered when determining the tension of material resources;Finally, in order to avoid the subjective influence of measuring the activity duration by the three-point estimation method, the risk of activity duration is determined by the triangular probability distribution method, and the project buffer under resource constraints is calculated based on this method. The simulation results show that the proposed method can effectively shorten the project duration and improve the project completion rate on time.