“一带一路”沿线国家基础设施投资社会风险评价研究

Research on Social Risk Assessment of Infrastructure Investment in Countries Along“the Belt and Road”

“一带一路”沿线国家在社会治安、人文环境、医疗卫生、劳动用工等社会环境方面存在着较大差异,使得我国对外基础设施投资面临巨大的社会风险。为评价和分析“一带一路”沿线国家基础设施投资的社会风险,本文采用独立性权重法、变异系数法和CRITIC权重法对指标进行客观赋权,使用灰色关联分析法对49个“一带一路”沿线国家进行社会风险评价,并基于风险相似度对评价结果进行分析。研究分析发现,本文选取的49个样本国家社会风险等级可以分为五大类及两个孤立点,其中每一类国家的社会风险存在相同的风险特征。基于本文研究,希望为我国对“一带一路”沿线国家进行基础设施投资决策和社会风险管理提供参考。

There are great differences in social environment,such as social security,human environment,medical and health care,labor and employment,which makes China􀆳s foreign infrastructure investment face great social risks.In order to evalua⁃te and analyze the social risk of infrastructure investment in countries along“the Belt and Road”,this article uses the independent weight method,the coefficient of variation method and the CRITIC weight method to objectively weight the indicators,and the grey correlation analysis method is used to evaluate the social risk of 49 countries along“the Belt and Road”,and the evaluation results are analyzed based on the risk similarity.The research shows that the social risk level of 49 sample countries can be divided into five categories and two isolated points,each of which has the same risk characteristics.Based on this research,it is hoped to provide reference for China􀆳s infrastructure investment decisions and social risk management in countries along“the Belt and Road”.