物流业与国民经济三次产业间增长关系研究——基于我国1952~2020年统计数据

Research into the Growth Relationship Between the Logistics Industry and the Three Industries of the National Economy——Based on the Statistical Data of China From 1952 to 2020

本文利用我国1952~2020年的统计数据,从短期和长期两个角度揭示物流业与第一产业、第二产业及第三产业间的增长关系。短期中,物流业增长率与三次产业增长率之间呈现少量的单向格兰杰因果关系,物流业发展受其自身冲击波动较大,受三次产业的冲击波动较小且持续时间较短。长期中,物流业与第一、二、三产业间存在两个长期协整关系,整合为一个长期关系时,物流业与第一、二、三产业之间的增长弹性分别为0.698、0.124、0.308,呈现正向的相互作用关系,在向量误差修正模型中,短期内的非均衡状态会得到大约24%的反向修正和调整。

This article reveals the growth relationship between the logistics industry and the primary,secondary and tertiary industries from both short-term and long-term perspectives.Data comes from China statistical yearbook from 1952 to 2020.VAR and VECM model are used in this article.In the short term,there is a small amount of one-way Granger causality between the growth rate of the logistics industry and the growth rate of the three industries.The development of the logistics industry is subject to its own shocks and fluctuates greatly.In the long run,there are two long-term co-integration relationships between the logistics in⁃dustry and the primary,secondary,and tertiary industries.When two long-term co-integration relationships are integrated into one long-term relationship,the growth elasticity between the logistics industry and the primary,secondary,and tertiary industries are 0.698,0.124,and 0.308,respectively.The result shows a positive interaction relationship.In the vector error correction model,the imbalanced state in the short term will be corrected and adjusted in the reverse direction by about 24%.