“一带一路”沿线国家通货膨胀周期的协动性研究

Research on the Inflation Cycle Co-movements among the Countries along the Belt and Road

本文通过研究“一带一路”沿线国家通货膨胀周期的协动性及其影响因素,发现“一带一路”沿线国家通货膨胀周期波动存在较强的协幼性,究其原因很大程度上是源自发展中国家综合因素和贸易互补性因素.利用双重差分模型,文章进一步探索了“一带一路”政策的区域性和时效性,从统计分析的角度验证了该政策是切实有效的,为“一带一路”沿线国家在未来加强经济合作和政策协调提供了依据.

This paper studies the co-movement and influencing factors of the inflation cycle of the countries along the Belt and Road,and finds that there are strong co-movements in the inflation cycle fluctuations of these countries.It is largely due to the comprehensive factor of developing countries and the trade complementarity factor.Using the difFerence-in-difference model,the paper further discusses the regionality and timeliness of the Belt and Road Initiative and verifies that the initiative is effective from the perspective of statistical analysis.