公共服务质量对二孩生育行为的影响及机制研究

The Influence and Mechanism of Public Service Quality on Reproductive Behavior for the Second Child

本文利用熵权法测算我国公共服务质量,并利用Probit模型分析公共服务质量对二孩生育行为的影响及机制。结果显示:(1)公共服务质量能显著提高二孩生育意愿及转化行为;(2)公共服务质量能通过增加工资收入和居民幸福感显著提高二孩生育意愿和转化行为,且公共服务质量越高,工资收入和幸福感的边际效应也越大;(3)公共服务质量能增加闲暇消费支出,虽不影响二孩生育意愿,但显著降低了二孩生育转化行为,且负向边际效应逐渐增大;(4)与作用于家庭特征和个体特征的政策相比,新型社会保障体系、劳动者保护等作用于社会特征的政策能更为有效地鼓励二孩生育行为。

This paper uses the Entropy Weight Method(EWM)to measure the quality of public services in China and the Probit model to analyze the impact and mechanism of public service quality on residents’reproductive behavior for the second child.The results are listed as follows.(1)The quality of public services can significantly improve residents’fertility intention and reproductive behavior of the second child.(2)The quality of public services can significantly increase residents’fertility intention and reproductive behavior to give birth to the second child by increasing their wage income and sense of happiness.And the higher the quality of public services is,the greater the marginal effect of wage income and sense of happiness will be.(3)The quality of public services can increase leisure consumption expenditure.Although it does not affect residents’fertility intention of the second child,it significantly reduces their second-child reproductive behavior,and the negative marginal effect increases gradually increases.(4)Compared with policies acted on family characteristics and individual characteristics,policies that act on social characteristics,such as the new social security system and worker protection policies,can improve residents’second-child reproductive behavior more effectively.