突发公共卫生事件下我国房价预测研究——基于模型平均方法

Estimation of House Price in China under Public Health Emergencies——Based on Model Average Method

2020年突如其来的新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情对全世界人民造成了巨大的影响,对中国住房市场的短期发展造成了较为剧烈的冲击,但经历了半年的恢复后,住房市场恢复较为显著。本文选择2004年第一季度至2020年第三季度的商品房平均销售价格及六个解释变量的数据为研究对象,运用S-AIC、S-BIC、MMA和JMA等模型平均方法对我国商品房价格进行建模,判断基于不同方法预测精度的优劣。研究表明,基于MMA准则的模型平均方法所得到的预测精度最优,并且具有很好的稳定性。

The sudden outbreak of New Coronavirus pneumonia in 2020 had a great impact on the whole world,the epidemic situation has caused a more severe impact on the short-term development of China’s housing market.After half a year of recovery,the housing market has recovered significantly.The average sales price of commercial housing and the data of six explanatory variables from the first quarter of 2004 to the third quarter of 2020 as the research object,uses S-AIC,S-BIC,MMA and JMA model average methods are selected to model the price of commercial housing in China,and judge the pros and cons of the prediction accuracy based on different methods.The results show that the model average method based on MMA has the best prediction accuracy and good stability.Looking forward to the future,the real estate market will remain continuous and stable after the epidemic.