总体国家安全观下国家情报评估制度的基本逻辑研究

A Study on Basic Logic of National Intelligence Estimate System Under the Concept of Overall National Security

[目的/意义]总体国家安全观赋予国家治理能力建设全新的内涵,为此探究总体国家安全观下的国家情报评估制度,能够为建立高效的、理性的、适应时代进程的国家安全治理体系提供重要参考。[方法/过程]在重新厘清并界定国家情报评估制度的内涵与功能基础上,根据总体国家安全观解析国家情报评估制度的必要性,并系统分析国家情报评估的理论、制度支撑及发展要求。[结果/结论]提出国家情报评估制度的分析框架包括逻辑起点、构成逻辑和运行机理3个方面,据此能够解释国家情报评估制度的基本逻辑规律与具体工作机制。

[Purpose/significance]The concept of the overall national security gives a new connotation to the construction of national governance capacity.Therefore,exploring the national intelligence estimate system under the concept of the overall national security can provide important reference for the establishment of an efficient,rational and adaptive national security governance system.[Method/process]On the basis of clarifying and defining the connotation and function of national intelligence estimate system,this paper analyzed the necessity of national intelligence estimate system according to the concept of the overall national security,and systematically analyzed theoretical and institutional support and development requirements of the overall national security.[Result/conclusion]This study proposes an analytical framework of national intelligence estimate system,which includes three aspects:logical starting point,composition logic and operation mechanism.Based on this framework,the basic logical rules and specific working mechanism of national intelligence estimate system can be explained.