北京公铁货运交通结构演进探析

Traffic Structure Evolution of Road-Rail Freight Transport in Beijing

为提高北京货运发展质量,在阐述北京公铁货运量比例变化、货物周转量比例变化和里程变化等交通结构演进概况的基础上,从政策、资源结构、经济发展、交通科技进步、技术经济性和固定资产投资等方面分析北京公铁交通结构演进影响因素,采用层次分析法计算影响因素权重,并运用灰色关联度分析法对影响因素进行进一步分析。结果表明,北京公铁货运交通结构演进是由各个因素共同作用的结果,其中经济发展、运输政策及资源结构分布是主要因素,研究结论可以为城市货运交通规划提供参考。

This research analyzed the influencing factors of the traffic structure evolution of road-rail freight transport in Beijing to improve the quality of its freight transport development.The changes in the proportion of road-rail freight volumes and freight turnover and the changes in the mileage in Beijing were elaborated.On this basis,influencing factors were analyzed from aspects of policy,resource structure,economic development,transportation technology progress,technical economy,and fixed asset investment,etc.This paper adopted the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)to calculate the weight of the influencing factors and used the gray relational analysis(GRA)method to further study the influencing factors.The results show that the traffic structure evolution of road-rail freight transport is the outcome of the combined action of various factors,among which economic development,transportation policies,and resource structure distribution are the main factors.The research conclusions can provide references for urban freight transportation planning.