基于灰色模型的东北三省GDP预测分析

The Analysis on GDP Predictive of the Three Provinces in Northeast China Based on the Grey Model

东北三省作为我国的老工业基地,其工业基础雄厚。但是近年来,随着经济转型和经济中心南移,其发展日显疲态。本文选取东北三省2010—2020年GDP及第一、二、三产业数据为样本构建灰色预测及灰色关联模型。实证结果表明,未来一段时间内各省不同产业侧重不同,经济发展不均衡,且GDP增长仍保持较低增速。本文为东北三省的经济发展提出相关经济政策建议,为政府和相关部门出台相关经济政策提供理论支撑和思考视角。

As China’s old industrial bases, the three northeastern provinces have a solid industrial foundation. However, in recent years, with the southward economic transformation and shift of the economic center, its development has become increasingly weak. This paper selects the GDP in 2010-2020 and the first, second and third industry data of the three northeastern provinces as samples to construct the gray predictive and gray correlative model. The empirical results show that in the future, different industries in different provinces have different priorities, economic development will be uneven, and GDP growth will still maintain a low growth rate. This article provides relevant economic policy recommendations for the economic development of the three northeastern provinces, and provides theoretical support and thinking perspectives for the government and relevant departments to introduce relevant economic policies.