复合极值理论在突发公共事件分析中的应用

Compound Extreme Value Theory and Its Applications in Emergencies

根据突发事件发生的特征性质,突发公共事件的发生次数基本上是离散型随机变量,然而它产生的损失等级却基本上符合连续型随机变量,若要把这两者综合在一起研究,则复合极值理论恰恰可以达到这个要求。根据复合极值关于突发事件理论,建立了由突发事件发生频次及其造成的灾难损失为变量构成的复合极值分布模型。通过对模型的分析可以得出T年一遇值X_(R)与λ,T的关系。该模型为建立应急准备体系提供理论依据,这对其他问题的解决有一定的参考价值。

According to the characteristics of the nature of unexpected events,the number of incidents is in line with discrete random variables,and its loss caused by the disaster is a continuous random variable.It should consider the two variables for analysis,and compound extreme value theory can just meet this demand.It builds compound extreme value distribution model based on the compound extreme value theory,which uses two variables:the frequency of unexpected events and the resulting catastrophe losses for the emergencies.It gets the relationship between X_(R) and λ,or X_(R) and Tthrough the analysis of the model The model provides a theoretical basis for the establishment of emergency preparedness systems,which has some reference value for other problems.