考虑过载状态和失效概率的航空网络级联故障模型

Cascading failure model in aviation network considering overload condition and failure probability

为提高突然事件引起的级联故障对航空网络破坏程度的评估可信性,考虑到机场节点对负载的冗余能力,即如果在一定的空间范围内出现过载,节点不会立即失效,而是具备一定的超额负载处置能力,提出一种考虑过载状态和失效概率的航空网络级联故障模型。该模型首先在传统的“负载−容量”Motter-Lai级联故障模型中增加了过载系数、权重系数、分布系数和容量系数,其次以过载状态和失效概率来描述网络节点的冗余容量特性,并对失效节点和过载节点采用不同的负载重分配策略,使模型更贴合航空网络实际。理论分析和仿真结果表明:在一定范围内提升过载系数有助于降低级联故障的影响,然而提升到一定程度后改善效果不明显;模型中的各参数存在最优区间,可以使航空网络保持较好鲁棒性的同时,花费较小的构建成本,据此对航空网络资源进行优化配置,可以提升网络对级联故障的抵御能力。

In order to improve the credibility of the damage degree evaluation to the aviation network due to cascading failures caused by emergency,considering the redundancy ability of airport nodes for the load,which means if the overload occurs in a certain spatial range,the node will not fail immediately but has a certain overload handling ability,an aviation network cascading failure model was proposed based on overload condition and failure probability.Firstly,the overload coefficient,weight coefficient,distribution coefficient,and capacity coefficient were introduced into the traditional"load-capacity"Motter-Lai cascading failure model.Then,the redundant capacity characteristics of network nodes were described by overload condition and failure probability,and different load redistribution strategies were applied to the failed and overloaded nodes to make the model more consistent with the aviation network reality.Theoretical analysis and simulation results show that increasing the overload coefficient within a certain range helps to reduce the impact of cascading failures,but the improvement effect is not obvious after increasing to a certain degree;with the optimal intervals for parameters of the model.the aviation network can maintain better robustness while spending smaller construction cost,and the optimized allocation of aviation network resources can improve the network’s resistance to cascading failures.