2020年俄远东联邦区经济形势分析

Economic Situation in the Far Eastern Federal District in2020

2020年,由于石油和外汇市场存在不确定性,以及因冠状病毒传播而采取的防疫限制措施,阿穆尔州、萨哈林州、滨海边疆区和萨哈共和国(雅库特)等投资密集地区的投资规模萎缩。外国直接投资行业差异明显,大部分集中于地质勘探和矿产资源开采。远东联邦区工业综合体生产规模下降,滨海边疆区、哈巴罗夫斯克边疆区的机器制造业、石油加工业和建材工业受到的冲击尤其严重。东部铁路基础设施发展计划未能完成,导致货运受到限制。居民实际货币收入减少,远东吸引力逐渐下降。远东联邦区人口持续减少,既有移民外流的原因,也是人口自然减少的结果。原文发表于俄罗斯《空间经济》(1)杂志2021年第2期,经作者同意在《西伯利亚研究》以中文刊发。

In 2020,in the conditions of uncertainty in the oil and foreign exchange markets,as well as the implementation of quarantine and restrictive measures due to the propagation of the COVID-19 infection,there is a decrease in investment in Amur Oblast,Sakhalin Oblast,Primorsky Krai,and the Republic of Sakha(Yakutia),which are the main“investment-intensive”regions of the Far Eastern Federal District.There is still a significant industry asymmetry when it comes to attracting foreign direct investment,most of which is concentrated in the geological exploration and mining of fuel and energy resources.The negative impact of macroeconomic shocks has led to a decrease in the volume of production in the industrial complex of the macroregion,especially affecting mechanical engineering,oil refining,and production of construction materials in Primorsky Krai and Khabarovsk Krai.The failure to implement the plans for the development of the railway infrastructure in the context of the growth of cargo flows to the seaports of the Far Eastern basin led to restrictions on cargo transportation.The reduction in the real monetary income of people in most regions of the Far Eastern Federal District is becoming a factor in reducing the attractiveness of the Far East as the high income area.The population of the macroregion has continued to decline not only due to migration outflow,but also due to natural population decline.The original text was published in the second issue of Russia’s magazineSpace Economicsin2020,and then published in China’s magazineSiberian Studieswith the author’s consent.