一类三角模糊数优性组合预测模型

A SUPERIOR COMBINATION FORECASTING MODEL OF TRIANGULAR FUZZY NUMBERS

将三角模糊数序列的三个界点转换为等价的面积型中心、面积型散度、质心三个指标序列。结合广义诱导有序加权平均(GIOWA)算子,选择面积型中心、面积型散度、质心三个指标的L2范数作为最优准则,建立了一类新的三角模糊数优性组合预测模型,并证明了新提出的模型一定是优性组合预测模型。通过实例分析对比,也进一步验证了该模型是有效性和可行性,能够有效提高预测精度,最后并针对GIOWA算子中的参数进行了灵敏度分析。

The three boundary points of triangular fuzzy number sequence are transformed into three equivalent index sequences:area type center,area type divergence and centroid.Combined with the generalized induced ordered weighted average(GIOWA)operator,the L2 norm of area type center,area type divergence and centroid is selected as the optimal criterion to establish a new superior combination forecasting model of triangular fuzzy numbers,and it is proved that the new model is a superior combination forecasting model.Through the example analysis and comparison,the model is further verified to be effective and feasible,which can effectively improve the prediction accuracy.Finally,the sensitivity analysis of the parameters in GIOWA operator is carried out.