陕北地区煤炭生产的能源投入回报评价研究

Study on Evaluation of Energy Return on Investment of Coal Production in Northern Shaanxi

我国煤炭资源开发向大型煤炭基地集聚,科学测算陕北基地煤炭生产的能源投入回报值,能明确用于促进经济社会发展的净能源,进而指导煤炭科学生产,对陕北地区煤炭行业实现高质量发展、助力实现"双碳"目标有重要意义。采用EROI方法分别测算了1998—2019年热当量与经Divisia指数修正的陕北地区煤炭生产的EROI_(stnd)、EROI_(1,env)值,在此基础上,应用ARMA模型对2020—2025年经Divisia指数修正的EROI_(1,env)值进行了预测。研究结果表明:1998—2019年热当量的陕北地区煤炭生产的EROI_(stnd)与EROI_(1,env)均值分别为77.3:1、6.80:1,经Divisia指数修正后分别为77.12:1、6.81:1,2020—2025年经Divisia指数修正后预测的EROI_(1,env)呈增长趋势,均值为8.34:1,表明陕北基地煤炭生产为经济社会发展提供的净能源量较高,进行此项活动对经济社会发展是有价值的,且反映出煤炭生产效率、实际利用程度和综合效益较高,同时发现环境污染治理投入对EROI值的负面影响较大。在此基础上,提出了充分发挥陕北基地煤炭的能源安全保障作用、提高陕北地区煤矿智能化与环境治理水平的建议。

China’s coal resource development is concentrated in large coal bases.Scientific calculation of the return value of energy input for coal production in Northern Shaanxi base can clarify the net energy used to promote economic and social development,and then guide coal scientific production,which is of great significance for the coal industry to achieve high-quality development and help achieve the goal of“double carbon”.The EROI method is used to calculate the EROI_(stnd),EROI(1,env)values of coal production in Northern Shaanxi by the heat equivalent and corrected by the division index from 1998 to 2019.On this basis,the ARMA model is used to predict the EROI1,env values corrected by the division index from 2020 to 2025.The results show that the mean values of EROI_(stnd)and EROI_(1,env) of heat equivalent coal production in Northern Shaanxi from 1998 to 2019 are 77.3:1 and 6.80:1 and 77.12:1 and 6.81:1 respectively after being corrected by the division index.The predicted EROI1,env from 2020 to 2025 after being corrected by the division index show an increasing trend,with the mean value of 8.34:1,indicating that the coal production in Northern Shaanxi base provides high net energy for economic and social development,This activity is valuable for economic and social development,and reflects that the coal production efficiency and actual utilization degree in Northern Shaanxi are high,with good comprehensive benefits.At the same time,it is found that labor and environmental pollution control investment have a great impact on EROI value.On this basis,combined with the research results,some suggestions are put forward to give full play to the energy security role of coal in Northern Shaanxi base and improve the intelligent and environmental governance level of coal mines in Northern Shaanxi.