协同发展还是虹吸效应?——来自京津冀地区的“动态”多维评估

Synergistic Development or Siphon Effect: “Dynamic” Multidimensional Evaluation from Jing-Jin-Ji Region

在产业发展、交通运输、生态治理、技术创新、开放共享五维评估指标基础上构建随机波动率动态结构模型,探索京津冀地区内部是协调发展还是虹吸效应。研究表明:从指标维度看,京津冀地区产业发展和开放共享方面具有协同发展效应,而在交通运输、生态治理、技术创新方面具有虹吸效应;从时间维度看,京津冀地区产业发展、交通运输、技术进步、开放共享方面在经济下行期其内部影响效应更强,而生态治理方面在经济上行期其内部溢出效应更强;从空间维度看,天津对京津冀地区内部溢出效应较强,而河北的溢出效应较弱,北京的溢出效应适中。鉴于此,应加强制度上的动态协同设计,综合运用多维评估体系与长效驱动发展战略,构建不同指标下的中心空间结构,牢牢把握创新的长效驱动作用。

Based on designing five-dimensional evaluation indexes of industrial development,transportation,ecological governance,technological innovation and open sharing,this paper constructs a dynamic structure model with random volatility to explores whether the internal development effect or the siphon effect within the region.It is found that from the index dimension,Jing-Jin-Ji region has a synergistic development effect in industrial development and open sharing,but has a siphon effect in transportation,ecological governance and technological innovation.From the perspective of time dimension,the internal impact effect of industrial development,transportation,technological progress and open sharing in Jing-Jin-Ji region is stronger in the economic downward period,while the internal spillover effect of ecological governance is stronger in the economic upward period.From the spatial dimension,Tianjin has a strong internal spillover effect on Jing-Jin-Ji region,while Hebei has a weak spillover effect,and Beijing has a moderate spillover effect.Therefore,we should strengthen the dynamic collaborative design of the system,comprehensively use the multi-dimensional evaluation system and long-term driving development strategy,establish the central spatial structure under different indicators,and firmly grasp the long-term driving role of innovation.