公路安全运行条件概率表述及由此对水下公路隧道运行管理的探讨

Discussion on Operational Management of Underwater Highway Tunnels Based upon Conditional Probability Formulation of Highway Safety Operation

针对水下公路隧道运行决策缺乏标准以及运行措施与减少事故之间联系亟需理论基础的问题,提出了将事故致因作为条件,通过条件概率将事故与致因联系起来的设想。立足公路运行安全的大视角,对事故分类、事故样本空间、事故条件作了界定,从基本理论出发列出6种公路事故条件概率表述,从危险条件、全概率条件遴选、聚焦主项、事故贝叶斯溯源、应急条件等维度分析了运行安全潜在的规律。

In response to the lack of criteria for operational decisions of underwater road tunnels and the urgent need for a theoretical basis clarifying the relationship between operational measures and accident reduction,the approach is proposed which takes accident causes as conditions and links accidents with their causes through conditional probabilities.Based on a broad perspective of highway operation safety,the accident classification,accident sample space,and accident conditions are defined.Six conditional probability formulations of highway accidents are given according to the basic theory,and potential laws of operation safety are analyzed in the dimensions of hazard conditions,full-probability condition selection,main focused items,accident traceability by Bayesian method,and emergency conditions.