摘要
采用青海省1965—2018年50个气象站月降水资料和同时段太阳黑子相对数资料,将青海省划分为长江和澜沧江源区、黄河源区、东部低海拔区和柴达木盆地区,运用集中度和集中期、线性倾向估计、M-K检验法和Morlet小波分析法对青海省时空降水变化特征进行分析。结果表明:青海省降水量在空间分布上呈现由西北向东南增加的特征,在年际变化上,青海省和4个分区年降水量都具有上升趋势,其中青海省平均上升0.81 mm/a;青海省降水年内分配不均,降水集中度具有逐渐趋向均匀的趋势;青海省出现微弱的降水突变信号,青海省主体和东部低海拔区突变始于2006年前后,长江和澜沧江源区突变始于2003年前后,柴达木盆地区突变于2001年前后,而黄河源区存在4个可能突变点;柴达木盆地降水变化具有22~23 a的主周期,青海省和其他3个分区都具有28~30 a的主周期,在28 a尺度上青海省和4个分区降水量与太阳黑子相对数的小波系数都分别达到了0.95、0.86、0.91、0.93和0.75的正相关性,且显著性水平均为0.01。
According to the monthly precipitation data from 50 meteorological stations in Qinghai Province during 1965-2018 and sunspot data over the same period,the spatial-temporal features of precipitation in Qinghai Province were analyzed with methods of precipitation concentration degree(PCD)and concentration period(PCP),linear trend,M-K test and Morlet wavelet analysis.Qinghai Province was divided into the Yangtze River and Lancang River source area,Yellow River source area,eastern low altitude area and Qaidam Basin area.Results unveiled a spatially increasing trend of precipitation in Qinghai from the northwest to the southeast.In terms of inter-annual variation,the annual precipitation in Qinghai grew by 0.81 mm per year,and its four sub-areas also showed upward trends.In monthly scale,however,the precipitation distributed unevenly during a year and the PCD tended to be uniform gradually.A weak abrupt change of precipitation was observed:the abrupt change in Qinghai Province and its eastern low-elevation area happened in 2006,the Yangtze River&Lancang River source area in 2003,and the Qaidam Basin around 2001;four possible abrupt change points in the Yellow River source area were observed.Wavelet analysis indicated that the precipitation on Qaidam Basin had a significant period of 22-23 years,and the Qinghai Province and its other three subareas 28-30 years.On a period of 28 years,the wavelet coefficients of the relative numbers of the precipitation in Qinghai Province and its four subarea and sunspot all reached positive correlations of 0.95,0.86,0.91,0.93,and 0.75,with their significance reaching 0.01.
作者
屈星
许继军
吴光东
霍军军
王永强
张潇
QU Xing;XU Ji-jun;WU Guang-dong;HUO Jun-jun;WANG Yong-qiang;ZHANG Xiao(Water Resources Department, Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute, Wuhan 430010, China;Changjiang Institute of Survey Planning Design and Research, CISPDR Corporation, Wuhan 430010, China)
出处
《长江科学院院报》
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第2期14-20,共7页
Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(52009006)
国家自然科学重大科学仪器研制项目(51527809)
中国长江三峡集团有限公司科研项目(0704106)。
关键词
降水
时空变化
太阳黑子
长江源
澜沧江源
黄河源
柴达木盆地
青海省
precipitation
spatio-temporal variation
sunspot
Yangtze River source area
Lancang River source area
Yellow River source area
Qaidam Basin
Qinghai Province