工业用水库兹涅茨曲线及其形成机制

Kuznets Curve of Industrial Water Use and Its Formation Mechanism

探究工业用水与经济发展之间的关系兼具理论意义和现实意义。基于中国1999—2018年省级面板数据,对全国以及各地区分组进行了工业用水环境库兹涅茨曲线(Environmental Kuznets Curve,EKC)检验,并运用对数平均迪氏指数(Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index,LMDI)方法定量测算了其背后的形成机制。结果表明:①全国、中部地区EKC呈“N”型;东部地区EKC为单调递增的直线;西部地区呈倒“U”型;②低用水低增长组、低用水高增长组、高用水高增长组和高用水低增长组4组的EKC分别为单调递减的直线、倒“U”型曲线、“N”型曲线和“N”型曲线;③3个工业用水驱动因子中,用水效率促进节水、经济扩张驱动用水、产业结构与工业用水量变化率关系曲线呈倒“U”型。结果证实了工业用水EKC的存在及其多样性,并提示政府关注多方因素因地制策以精准施策。

Exploring the relationship between industrial water use and economic development has both theoretical and practical significance.Based on the provincial panel data of China from 1999 to 2018,we conducted EKC(Environmental Kuznets Curve)test on the industrial water use of national and regional groupings,and measured the formation mechanism of Kuznets curve using the LMDI(logarithmic mean divisia index)method.Results manifested that:1)the Kuznets Curves of industrial water use in the whole country and in the central region displayed an“N”shape,in the eastern region a monotonically increasing straight line,and in the western region an inverted“U”shape.2)Province groups with low industrial water consumption and low industrial growth rate,low industrial water consumption and high industrial growth rate,high industrial water consumption and high industrial growth rate,as well as high industrial water consumption and low industrial growth rate displayed different features in EKCs—monotonically decreasing straight line,inverted“U”shape,“N”shape,and also“N”shape,respectively.3)Among the three driving factors for industrial water use,water use efficiency promotes water saving;economic expansion drives water use;industrial structure is in an inverted“U”-shaped relation with the change rate of water use.The results confirmed the existence and diversity of the industrial water EKC curve,and reminded the government to take into consideration various factors and adapt to local conditions for precise implementation.