漯河市构筑空间与绿度空间耦合分析及仿真模拟优化

Coupling analysis and simulation optimization of constructing space and green space in Luohe City

【目的】优化城市规划布局,探究城市构筑空间与绿度空间耦合路径,优化城市用地空间布局,实现协调可持续发展。【方法】基于分形、人工神经网络元胞自动机(ANN-CA)与空间句法等模型,进行多时相的漯河市土地利用/覆盖变化(LUCC)分析和预测仿真。【结果】①形态分维数由2003年的1.64增长到2013年的1.70,2018年达1.75;②聚集维存在数据突变点,空间集聚状态在不同圈层存在差异;③2003—2018年城市绿度空间可达性显著降低;④构建ANN-CA-GM(1,1)城市增长模型模拟“底线、约束和理想”3种未来情景,对构筑空间和绿度空间的耦合发展过程进行预测:2025年城市建设用地将持续增至156.71 km^(2),其中理想情景下的构筑空间集聚范围回落至市政府周边5500 m,与绿度空间面积比为1.00∶1.48。【结论】①2013年城市形态接近最优,随后由于城市高密度发展,2018年城市建设用地布局过密,与绿度空间耦合交流受阻;②在2018年市政府周边14圈层(7000 m)范围内建设用地高度聚集,此区域内发展生态用地有助于引导精明增长,构建韧性城市;③绿度空间面积大且可达性程度高的区域集中在建设用地高度聚集范围以外,而聚集区内的沿河绿地空间利用程度低;④理想情景空间耦合布局为国土空间规划及“三线划定”提供定量化数据支撑与空间布局参考,通过绿地布局实现城市生态服务的有效供给。图7表4参33。

[Objective]Optimize the layout of urban planning to explore the coupling path of urban construction space and green space,optimize the spatial layout of urban land to achieve coordinated and sustainable development.[Method]Multi-temporal urban LUCC analysis and prediction simulation were carried out based on fractal,artificial neural network cellular automata(ANN-CA)and spatial syntax models.[Result](1)The fractal dimension increased from 1.64 in 2003 to 1.70 in 2013 and reached 1.75 in 2018.(2)There is a data mutation point in the aggregation dimension,and the spatial aggregation state is different in different circles.(3)The spatial accessibility of urban greenness decreased significantly from 2003-2018.(4)The ANN-CA-GM(1,1)urban growth model is constructed to simulate three future scenarios of“free,constrained and ideal”,and the coupling development process of construction space and green space is predicted:the urban construction land will continue to increase to 156.71 km^(2) in 2025,and the agglomeration range of construction space under the ideal scenario will fall back to 5500 m around the city government,and the area ratio of green space to construction space is 1.00∶1.48.[Conclusion](1)The urban form is close to optimal in 2013,followed by an overly dense layout of urban built-up land in 2018 due to high-density urban development,which hinders the coupled exchange with greenness space.(2)In 2018,the construction land was highly concentrated in 14 circles(7000 m)around the city government.The development of ecological land in this region helps to guide smart growth and build a resilient city.the coupled exchange with greenness space.(3)The area with large green space area and high accessibility are concentrated outside the high aggregation area,while the utilization of riverside green space in the aggregation area is low.(4)The ideal scenario spatial coupling layout provides quantitative data support and spatial layout reference for land spatial planning and“three-line delimitation”,and realizes the effective supply of urban ecological products through green space layout.[Ch,7 fig.4 tab.33 ref.]