山东省三次产业发展水平时空格局演变研究

Research on the evolution of the spatial-temporal pattern of the development level of three industries in Shandong Province

产业发展水平的时空格局直接影响区域经济社会协调发展,研究山东省三次产业时空格局演变规律,可为其空间优化布局和产业的整体发展提供参考。文章采用曼-肯德尔(Mann-Kendall)趋势检验、热点分析、时空数据挖掘等技术方法,研究了山东省三次产业时空格局发展演变规律。结果表明:1978—2018年间,山东省第一产业占GDP的比重下降趋势显著,第三产业占比的上升趋势最为显著,而山东第一产业占全国第一产业的比重保持平稳,第二、三产业占全国的比重上升趋势显著;2000—2018年间,山东省各市的第一产业占比均呈下降趋势,16个市的第三产业占比上升趋势显著;东部沿海城市一直是山东三次产业的热点区,是产业发展水平的高值集聚区,在全省经济发展中具有显著的引领作用。

The spatial-temporal pattern of industrial development level directly affects the coordinated development of regional economy and society.Studying the evolution of the three-industry spatial-temporal pattern in Shandong Province can provide a reference for its spatial optimization and overall industrial development.The article uses Mann-Kendall trend test,hot spot analysis,spatial-temporal data mining and other technical methods to study the development and evolution of the three industries in Shandong Province.The results show that from 1978 to 2018,the proportion of the primary industry in Shandong Province s GDP has declined significantly while the proportion of the tertiary industry has increased significantly.The proportion of Shandong s primary industry accounted for the country s primary industry remained stable,and the proportion of the secondary and tertiary industries in the country increased significantly.From 2000 to 2018,the proportion of the primary industry in all cities of the province showed a downward trend,while the proportion of the tertiary industry in 16 cities has a significant upward trend.The eastern coastal cities have been hotspots for Shandong s tertiary industries from 2000 to 2018.They are mainly continuous and enhanced hotspots,and play a significant leading role in the economic development of the province.