阿富汗变局及其根源——以生态制度主义理论为视角

On the Causes of the Upheaval in Afghanistan——From the Perspective of Ecological Institutionalism Theory

阿富汗变局是当今世界百年未有之大变局的一部分。面对百年未有之大变局,美国正在推进从"以反恐为中心"向"以大国竞争为中心"的战略调整,而阿富汗变局则是美国全球战略转型的副产品。然而,阿富汗变局更深层次的根源来自于世界百年大变局的宏观生态、中亚地区的中观生态、阿富汗国内的微观生态三者交织互动形成的合力。因此,要正确理解阿富汗变局,我们需要首先突破现有国际关系理论的国际/国内二分法,从生态制度主义理论的视角来考察统筹国际和国内的生态体系变化及其对阿富汗变局乃至世界百年大变局的影响。从这个意义上来说,阿富汗变局是世界百年未有之大变局的一个缩影,但阿富汗变局反过来也进一步加速了世界百年大变局的进程,而乱变交织则成为当前和今后国际形势发展变化的一个重要特征。

The upheaval in Afghanistan in 2021 is part of the overall world transformation unseen in centuries.Generally,the upheaval can be explained as the by-product of American strategic adjustment from anti-terrorism centric model to great power centric model.More substantially,the deeper root of Afghanistan’s changes comes from the synergy of the macro-ecology of the world’s great changes in the past century,the meso-ecology of Central Asia and the micro-ecology of Afghanistan.Theoretically,in order to understand the upheaval in Afghanistan correctly,we should break through the international/domestic dichotomy of the existing theories of international relations,and examine the overall international and domestic ecological system changes and their impact on the changes in Afghanistan and even the changes of the world unseen in a century from the perspective of eco-institutionalism theory.In this sense,the changes in Afghanistan are a microcosm of changes unseen in the world in the past century.In turn,the changes in Afghanistan also have further accelerated the process of the great changes of the world.And the intertwining of chaotic changes has become an important feature of the current and future development of the international situation.