中国数字经济发展指数的测度与空间分异特征研究

Research on the Measurement and Spatial Characteristics of China’s Digital Economy

从数字基础设施、数字产业和数字治理三个维度54个指标构建了中国大陆省级数字经济发展指数,并基于2005—2019年30个省份的数据,探究了中国数字经济发展的空间分布差异特征与动态演进。研究发现,中国数字经济发展总体速度较快,其中数字治理增长速度最快,但省际之间发展差异较大,在空间上呈非均衡性分布态势,其中区域间差异是构成数字经济发展总体空间差异的主要来源,平均贡献率达63.2%。随着时间推移,各省份数字经济发展水平的差异正逐年减小,但近年来收敛速度有所放缓。此外,各省份的数字经济发展存在显著的正向空间相关性,空间分布上呈高—高集聚、低—低集聚态势,且与发展水平较高的省份相邻能够提高本省份数字经济向更高水平的转移概率。因此,实现地区与省际间数字经济的包容、普惠、协调与互促发展是中国数字战略的一个重要目标与内容。

This paper constructs China’s provincial digital economy development index from the three dimensions of digital infrastructure, digital industry and digital governance, and explores the spatial distribution difference characteristics and dynamic evolution of China’s digital economy development based on the data of 30 provinces from 2005 to 2019. It is found that the digital economy of China’s provinces develops rapidly, among which the growth speed of digital governance is the fastest, but the differences between provinces are large and it shows an unbalanced distribution in space. Interregional differences are the main source of the overall spatial differences of digital economy, with an average contribution rate of 63.2%. With the passage of time, the difference in the development level of digital economy among provinces is decreasing year by year, but the convergence rate has slowed down in recent years. In addition, there is a significant positive spatial correlation in the development of digital economy in each province. High level provinces are adjacent to high-level provinces, and low level provinces are adjacent to low-level provinces. Being adjacent to provinces with higher development level of digital economy can improve the transfer probability to a higher level. The policy enlightenment of this paper is that realizing the tolerated, inclusive, coordinated and mutually promoting development of digital economy between regions and provinces is an important goal and content of China’s digital strategy.