中东剧变以来突尼斯的经济状况及前景分析

An Analysis of Tunisia's Economic Situation and Prospects after Ten Years of Upheaval in the Middle East

中东剧变始于突尼斯。中东剧变以来,突尼斯政治转型取得了显著进展,但是没有获得坚实的经济发展支撑。突尼斯经济发展一直停滞不前,并且呈现低增长、高赤字、高债务、高失业率、高通胀等特点,当下甚至陷入更加严重的经济危机。突尼斯经济陷入困境,是许多因素综合作用的结果。其中,对欧洲市场的严重依赖、经济结构的深层次问题、政治转型的不成熟性等,是不可忽视的重要因素。2020年蔓延全球的新冠肺炎疫情,是突尼斯经济遭受重挫的突发性因素。展望未来,继续控制疫情,恢复被疫情重挫的经济,已成为突尼斯政府的当务之急。在此背景下,许多重要的经济改革措施被迫延迟实施。由于政治转型的不成熟性仍旧非常突出,突尼斯政府的施政能力严重受挫,宏观经济环境也较难进一步改善。突尼斯经济要走出困境,实现可持续发展尚需时日。

The upheaval in the Middle East began in Tunisia.Since the upheaval in the Middle East,Tunisia has made remarkable progress in its political transition.However,its economy has been in stagnation for a decade with characteristics of low growth,high deficits,high debts,high unemployment and high inflation.And it is now even worse than before.Tunisia has suffered from serious economic trouble due to a variety of factors.Among them,the heavy dependence on the European market,the deep-seated problems in the economic structure,the immaturity of the political transition,etc.,are the important factors that cannot be ignored.The COVID-19 pandemic,which has spread around the world since the beginning of 2020,is an unexpected factor in Tunisia's economic slump.Looking forward,further fighting against the epidemic and stabilizing the economy is the priority in Tunisia's government policy.Under this background,many significant economic reforms will be delayed.The immaturity of the political transition is still very prominent,the Tunisian government's capacity has suffered a serious setback,the macroeconomic environment is also difficult to improve further.It will take time for Tunisia to emerge from the economic difficulties and achieve sustainable development.