预警概念界定问题研究

A Study on the Definition of the Concept of Warning

[研究目的]近几年来,预警问题得到了国内学术界和情报界的普遍关注,关于预警问题的理论研究日益兴盛。然而,由于诸多原因,各界对预警概念的认识仍存在一定分歧。准确认识预警概念的内涵与外延,对于建构和完善预警理论体系、改进预警工作意义重大。[研究方法]梳理国内外对预警概念的主流认识,在此基础上对预警概念进行界定,并对相关争议性问题进行探讨。[研究结论]预警本质上是一种情报预测与警报活动,其核心是情报分析。预警是情报部门的主要职能,预警价值的发挥离不开决策反应,但将决策反应纳入预警流程,事实上是扩大了预警的外延。

[Research purpose]In recent years,the warning issue got wide attention of the domestic academic and intelligence community.The study on warning is becoming more and more prosperous.However,for a number of reasons,there still exists certain differences on the awareness of the concept of warning,which hinders the construction and improvement of the theoretical system of warning to some extent.Accurately understanding the connotation and denotation of the concept of warning,is of great significance for constructing and perfecting the theoretical system of warning and improving the work of warning.[Research method]This paper combs the domestic and international mainstream understanding of the concept of warning,defines the concept of warning,and discusses the related controversial issues.[Research conclusion]This paper argues that warning is essentially an intelligence prediction and warning activity with intelligence analysis as the core,warning is the main function of the intelligence agency;the value of warning cannot be brought into play without decision maker's resoponse,but bringing decision maker's response into the warning process actually expands the extension of warning.