湖北省产业结构与经济增长关系的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship Between Industrial Structure and Economic Growth in Hubei Province

作为华中地区的人口大省,湖北省产业结构在过去的几十年内发生了巨大变化。产业结构的调整往往伴随着经济增长,关于经济增长与产业结构关系的研究是为了湖北省未来的产业发展和政策制定。本文基于湖北省统计年鉴中湖北省产业结构与经济增长的相关数据,采用普通最小二乘法估计,对该地区产业结构和经济增长的关系进行统计分析。结果显示:湖北省第二产业在三次产业中的占比决定了湖北省经济的增速。因此,湖北省应在夯实农业的基础上,优先发展第二产业,同时鼓励发展第三产业。

As a populous province in central China,the industrial structure of Hubei Province has undergone great changes in the past decades.The adjustment of industrial structure is always accompanied by economic growth.The research on the relationship between economic growth and industrial structure is for the future industrial development and policy making of Hubei Province.Based on the relevant data of industrial structure and economic growth in Hubei Province in Statistical Yearbook of Hubei Province,OLS is adopted to conduct statistical analysis on the relationship between industrial structure and economic growth in this region.The results show that the proportion of the secondary industry in the three industries determines the economic growth rate of Hubei province.Therefore,Hubei province should give priority to the development of the second industry and encourage the development of the third industry on the basis of consolidating agriculture.