A capture probability analytic model for the electromagnetic launched anti-torpedo torpedo

With the unique characteristics,electromagnetic launch technology is applicable to launch shipborne anti-torpedo torpedo(ATT).This paper aims to establish an analytic model to pre-evaluate the capture probability of the electromagnetic launched ATT.The mathematics model of the multi-stage coilgun and the trajectory of the ATT is established for analysis.The influence factors of the capture probability are analyzed respectively,including the entry point dispersion of the ATT and the position dispersion of the incoming torpedo.Adopting the advanced angle interception mode,the ATT search model is obtained according to the positional relationship,and the course error is synthetically calculated according to the differentiation of implicit function.A geometric method to calculate the integral boundaries of the probability density function is proposed,based on the relative motion of the ATT and the incoming target.To verify the proposed integral model,the digital simulation and comparison is conducted.The results reveal that the variation trends and the calculation value of the proposed analytic model are coincident with the statistic results from Monte Carlo method.And implications of the results regarding the analytic model are discussed.