中国城市数字金融发展对碳排放绩效的影响及机理

The impact of urban digital finance development on carbon emission performance in China and mechanism

在数字经济时代,实现碳达峰、碳中和,是一场广泛而深刻的经济社会系统性变革,需要利用数字金融形成节能减排的长效机制。本文在阐述数字金融影响城市碳排放绩效理论的基础上,运用2012—2018年中国285个城市作为研究样本,运用面板回归模型、工具变量法、中介效应模型等方法实证分析了数字金融发展对碳排放绩效的影响方向及其作用机理。结果表明:①数字金融发展显著降低了碳排放强度和提高了碳排放效率,在整体上改善了碳排放绩效,并且数字金融覆盖广度、使用深度和数字化程度的提升均改善了碳排放绩效。②数字金融发展通过经济增长效应、产业结构效应和技术创新效应降低了碳排放强度,通过经济增长效应和技术创新效应提升了碳排放效率。总体来看,数字金融发展通过这3种效应改善了碳排放绩效。③数字金融发展更有利于低经济发展水平和低金融发展水平城市碳排放强度的降低;而在碳排放效率方面,数字金融发展更有利于高经济发展水平和高金融发展水平城市碳排放效率的提升。未来中国政府应加快发展数字金融,促进金融服务与现代数字技术结合,通过优化金融资源配置为碳达峰、碳中和目标提供支撑。

Based on a theoretical analysis,this study used the balanced panel data of 285 city samples in China from 2012 to 2018 to empirically analyze the impact of digital finance development on carbon emission performance by using the panel regression model and instrumental variable method.The results show that:(1)The development of digital finance significantly reduces the carbon emission intensity and improves the carbon emission efficiency,and the improvement of the coverage,use depth,and digitalization degree of digital finance improves the carbon emission performance.(2)The analysis of intermediary mechanism shows that the development of digital finance reduces carbon emission intensity through economic growth effect,industrial structure effect,and technological innovation effect,and improves carbon emission efficiency through economic growth effect and technological innovation effect.In general,the development of digital finance improves carbon emission performance through these three effects.(3)The results of heterogeneity analysis show that the development of digital finance is more conducive to reducing the carbon emission intensity of cities with low economic development level and low financial development level;with regard to carbon emission efficiency,the development of digital finance is more conducive to improving the carbon emission efficiency of cities with high economic development level and high financial development level,which is a result of the different basic conditions of technological innovation.