贷款利率市场化对企业财务脆弱性的影响研究

The Influence of Loan Interest Rate Liberalization on Financial Fragility of Enterprises

金融稳定是国民经济健康有序发展的重要保障,企业财务脆弱性是金融不稳定的主要根源。本文将利率市场化与金融稳定的关系作为切入点,分析并检验贷款利率下限放开对2007-2018年间沪深两市非金融企业财务脆弱性的影响。研究发现:(1)贷款利率下限放开显著降低了企业庞氏融资发生概率,说明贷款利率市场化有助于缓解企业财务脆弱性,且该效应在非国有企业中更强。(2)从影响途径看,贷款利率市场化通过降低企业负债水平、长期借款占比和有息负债占比,缓解企业财务的脆弱性。(3)贷款利率市场化对有资金缺口、商业信用低、营收规模小但能够盈利企业财务脆弱性的缓解效应更强。本文研究提供了贷款利率市场化微观经济效应正外部性的经验证据,既是对利率市场化宏观经济后果的有益补充,也丰富了有关企业财务脆弱性影响因素的文献,为央行完善贷款市场报价利率形成机制和银行监管部门强化金融监管,提供了一些新的理论和实践参考依据。

Financial stability is an important guarantee for healthy and orderly economic development and long-term social stability, and enterprise financial fragility is the main source of financial instability. From the perspective of the relationship between the liberation of interest rate and financial stability, this paper test the impact of the liberalization of the lower limit of loan interest rate on the financial fragility of non-financial enterprises traded in Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchange from 2007 to 2018. The results show that:(1) the liberalization of the lower limit of loan interest rate reduces the probability of Ponzi financing, indicating that the liberalization of loan interest rate helps to alleviate the financial fragility of enterprises, and the effect is significantly stronger in non-state-owned enterprises.(2) From the perspective of influence paths, the liberation of loan interest rate not only decreases the leverage, but also reduces the scale of long-term-loan and interest-bearingdebt.(3) The liberation of loan interest rate has a stronger mitigation effect on the financial fragility of enterprises with capital gap, less commercial credit, smaller revenue scale and profitability. This paper provides the latest empirical evidence of the positive externality of the microeconomic effect of the liberalization of loan interest rate,which is not only a useful supplement to the macroeconomic consequences of the liberalization of interest rate,but also enriches the literature on the influencing factors of enterprise financial fragility, and provides some new theoretical and practical reference for the PBC and CBIRC to improve the formation mechanism of quoted interest rate in the loan market and strengthen financial supervision.