中国跨国企业如何适应新兴市场的不确定性?

How do Chinese Multinational Enterprises Adapt to the Uncertainty of Emerging Markets?

在"VUCA"特征愈加凸显的新全球化时代下,企业赖以生存的海外市场环境和发展路径遭到破坏,能否更好地适应和应对海外市场的环境不确定性,成为企业生存与发展的关键。本文基于组织注意力视角,选取特变电工集团的3家海外子公司作为研究对象,通过多案例研究设计,探讨了中国跨国企业在新兴市场所面临的环境不确定性及其适应路径选择。研究发现:(1)中国跨国企业在新兴市场面临的环境不确定性来源于东道国宏观环境层面的制度因素以及组织竞争环境层面的任务因素,并且企业在不同新兴市场所面临的这两个维度的不确定性程度有差异,从而导致其面临的环境不确定性具有异质性特征;(2)在考虑嵌入环境不确定性的异质性特征的基础上,企业注意力焦点选择也有所不同,呈现出威胁倾向、机会倾向及两者并重这三种注意力配置倾向;(3)在环境不确定性的异质性与注意力配置倾向交互作用下,中国跨国企业采取嵌入型、能动型以及整合型适应策略来应对环境变化,并最终形成三种路径来实现企业在新兴市场的适应性。本文立足于新兴市场情境,解构了中国跨国企业在新兴市场所面临的环境不确定性的来源及具体表现,构建了中国企业在新兴市场实现适应性的路径选择模型,为中国企业更好地适应复杂多变的国际环境贡献新的见解和启示。

In the new era of globalization with the increasingly prominent characteristics of“VUCA”, the overseas market environment and development path on which enterprises rely for survival have been destroyed. Whether they can quickly respond to and better adapt to the environmental uncertainty of overseas markets has become the key to the survival and development of enterprises.Especially in the emerging market environment, due to the uniqueness of embedded situations,enterprises face greater adaptability problems in the process of expanding in emerging markets. On the one hand, as emerging economies are in the transition period of social and economic development,frequent government changes and the continuous intersection of old and new systems lead to the faster frequency and wider scope of institutional changes, resulting in the unbalanced development of society,economy and system. On the other hand, affected by geopolitics, the frequent occurrence of political turmoil and terrorism in some countries in emerging markets and a series of chain reactions induced thereby further increase the difficulty of prediction and control of Chinese enterprises in emerging markets. Therefore, whether Chinese enterprises can cope with and better adapt to the environmental uncertainty of emerging markets has become the focus of the industry and academia. Based on the perspective of organizational attention, this paper selects three overseas subsidiaries of TBEA group as the research object, and discusses the environmental uncertainty and adaptation path selection faced by CMNEs in emerging markets through a multi-case study. The results show that:(1) The environmental uncertainty faced by CMNEs in emerging markets comes from the uncertainty of institutional factors at the macro environmental level of host countries and the uncertainty of task factors at the organizational competitive environment level, and the uncertainty degree of these two dimensions faced by enterprises in different emerging markets is different, resulting in the heterogeneity of environmental uncertainty.(2) On the basis of fully considering the heterogeneity of embedded environmental uncertainty, the choice of enterprise attention focus is also different, and presents three attention allocation tendencies:threat tendency, opportunity tendency and coexistence of the two.(3) Under the interaction between the heterogeneity of environmental uncertainty and attention allocation tendencies, CMNEs respond to environmental changes through embedded, active and integrated adaptation strategies, and finally form three paths to realize the adaptability of enterprises in emerging markets. Based on the emerging market situation, this paper deconstructs the sources and specific manifestations of environmental uncertainty faced by CMNEs in emerging markets from the content dimension, and constructs a path selection model for Chinese enterprises to realize adaptability in emerging markets, so as to contribute new insights and enlightenment for Chinese enterprises to better adapt to the complex and changeable international environment.