童年迁移经历对农村流动人口成年时期收入的影响

The Impact of Childhood Migration Experience on the Income of Rural Migrants in Adulthood

本文运用2017年全国流动人口卫生计生动态监测调查数据,使用多元线性模型和双重稳健模型展开分析,发现童年迁移经历给农村流动人口成年时期收入带来显著的消极影响。中介效应分析表明,童年迁移经历会通过对个体的受教育年限、健康状况和原有社会资本产生消极影响降低农村流动人口成年时期收入。同时,童年迁移经历会对个体的新增社会资本产生显著的积极影响从而提高农村流动人口成年时期收入。异质性分析发现,童年迁移经历对男性农村流动人口成年时期收入的消极影响大于对女性的影响;6~12岁时迁移产生的消极影响最大,6岁以前迁移产生的消极影响次之,13~15岁时迁移产生的消极影响最小;市内跨县迁移的消极影响大于省内跨市迁移,而跨省迁移的影响则并不显著。本文的研究为理解迁移对个体经济福利的影响提供了新的视角,同时也为减轻迁移造成的消极影响提供了政策启示。

Based on the China Migrants Dynamic Survey data in 2017, this article uses the OLS regression model and dual robust model and finds that childhood migration experience has a significant negative effect on the income of rural migrants in their adulthood. Through mediating effect analysis, it finds that childhood migration experience can reduce the income of rural migrants in their adulthood through a negative impact on their education years, health condition and original social capital. At the same time,childhood migration experience will exert a positive impact on individuals’ new social capital, thus improving the income of rural migrants in their adulthood. Heterogeneity analysis finds that childhood migration experience causes a greater negative effect on the income of male rural migrants in their adulthood than female rural migrants. The negative effects of migration are the greatest at the age of 6-12, followed by the migration before 6 years old, and the migration at the age of 13-15 exerts a minimum negative effect.The negative impact of cross-county migration in the city is greater than that of cross-city migration in the province, while the impact of inter provincial migration is not significant. This study provides a new perspective for understanding the effect of migration onindividuals’ economicwelfare and puts forward policy suggestionsto reduce thenegative effectofmigration.