德国新政府对华政策前瞻

The Prospect of the New German Government’s China Policy

不同于默克尔时代,德国新政府执政纲领及部分新政要对华表态尤为强调意识形态分歧和对华竞争。在近年来中西方对抗性上升、美国不断拉欧遏华的大背景下,德国对华认知趋于负面,加之德国自身政局变化以及中德经贸关系的变化,新政府或将加强对华防范与施压,减少对华战略依赖,同欧美盟友加强协调,一致对华,在经贸、科技、全球基建、规则标准等领域争夺主动权。中德关系存在波动的可能性,但由于中德经贸捆绑、西方内部矛盾、德国外交务实传统等因素,新政府将在延续的基础上调整对华政策,中德关系尚不致发生逆转。

Different from the Merkel era, new German government’s Coalition Treaty and some of its new ministers’ expressions about China have put more emphasis on ideological disputes and competition with China.Against the backdrop of the rising antagonism between China and the West as well as the continuous efforts of the United States to pull Europe to curb China in recent years, Germany’s understanding about China tends to be negative. Due to changes in Germany’s own political landscape and in Sino-German economic and trade relations, the new government is likely to reinforce its defense against and pressure upon China, reduce its strategic dependence on China, strengthen the coordination with its European and American allies for a collective China policy, and compete for the upper hand in economy and trade, science and technology, global infrastructure, rules and standards.