面向2050年我国农业资源平衡与国际进口潜力研究

Agricultural Resource Balance and International Import Potential of China by 2050

受农业高质量发展、食物消费结构转型升级、气候变化的多重影响,我国农业资源供需平衡日益趋紧,因而统筹利用国际国内两种资源、两个市场,保障我国中长期粮食安全至关重要。本文在对比分析国内、国际农业资源的基础上,研究了我国2035年和2050年的粮食消费需求、消费结构、供给结构,分析了未来农业资源供需缺口以及虚拟水、虚拟耕地的可进口潜力与进口来源地,据此展望了我国农业水土资源利用的目标。研究表明:我国虚拟耕地进口将在2048年前后达到峰值,需进口虚拟耕地近6.147×10^(7)hm^(2);虚拟水进口量在2045年前后达到峰值,虚拟水进口量为1.136×10^(8)m^(3)(以蓝水估算),约为2017年全国农业总用水量的30%;可增加的耕地进口潜力主要来自南美洲和非洲。

The balance of supply and demand for agricultural resources in China is becoming increasingly tight due to the multiple effects of high-quality agricultural production,transformation and upgrading of food consumption structure,and climate change.Therefore,it is crucial for China to integrate the international and domestic resources and markets to ensure food security in the medium and long term.Based on a comparative analysis of agricultural resources in China and abroad,we investigate food consumption demand,consumption structure,and supply structure in China by 2035 and 2050.The agricultural resource utilization targets for China by 2035 and 2050 are proposed based on an analysis of the agricultural resource supply-demand gap as well as import potentials and sources of virtual water and virtual arable land.We find that the import of virtual arable land by China will reach a peak around 2048,with nearly 6.147×10^(7) hm^(2).Virtual water imports will reach a peak around 2045.If estimated by blue water,virtual water imports will be 1.136×10^(8) m^(3),accounting for 30%of the total agricultural water consumption in 2017.The increase in the import potentials of China’s arable land will mainly come from South America and Africa.