全球农业发展趋势及2050年中国农业发展展望

Trends of Global Agriculture and Prospects of China’s Agriculture Toward 2050

本文在回顾中国农业发展历史的基础上,结合全球农业发展趋势对中国农业发展的启示,重点展望至2050年中国农业发展趋势。研究表明,需要遵循总体经济结构转型与农村经济转型相辅相成的发展路径,提升农业劳动生产力,促进农业快速发展。至2050年,农业GDP占总体GDP的比例与农业就业占总体就业的比例将逐渐趋同。中国食物自给率将从现在的95%下降到2035年的90%左右,未来还会缓慢下降。高价值农产品和多功能农业的发展是未来农业增长和农民农业增收的主要增长来源。基于研究结果,提出至2050年实现中国农业现代化的战略重点:(1)农业生产力提升与保障国家食物安全战略;(2)发挥农产品比较优势发展战略;(3)绿色高效高值农业发展促进战略;(4)农业水土资源可持续利用保障战略;(5)制度、政策、投资改革引领现代农业发展创新战略。针对主要战略提出保障措施:持续加大科技和基础设施投入,提高农业生产力;在保障粮食安全生产能力的基础上,加大优势农业及需求潜力大的农业的发展;改善市场环境、弥补市场失灵,支持高值农业发展;加快推进农业永续发展;优化配置"土地、劳动力、资金"等农业生产要素。

This article reviews China’s agricultural development history and prospects China’s agricultural development by 2050 considering the implications of global agricultural development trends on China’s agriculture. The transformations of the overall economic structure and the rural economy should be combined to enhance agricultural labor productivity and promote the rapid development of agriculture. By 2050, the share of agriculture GDP in China’s total economy and the share of agricultural employment in China’s total employment will reach convergency gradually. China’s food self-sufficiency rate will drop from the current 95% to about 90% in 2035 and will further drop by 2050. High-value agricultural products and multifunctional agriculture are the major driving forces for future agricultural growth and income raise of farmers. The strategic priorities for realizing China’s agricultural modernization by 2050 include:(1) improving agricultural productivity and ensuring national food security;(2) maximizing the comparative advantages of agricultural products;(3) promoting green, high-efficiency, and high-value agriculture;(4) guaranteeing sustainable utilization of agricultural water and soil resources;and(5) guiding modern agricultural development through institutional,policy, and investment reforms. Salient policy recommendations include:(1) increasing investment in technology and infrastructure to improve agricultural productivity;(2) enhancing the development of advantageous agriculture and agriculture with large demand potentials based on ensuring food security;(3) improving the market environment by rectifying market failures to support the development of high-value agriculture;(4) maintaining the sustainable development of agriculture;and(5) optimizing the allocation of land, labor, capital, and other agricultural production factors.