虚拟水流视角下西北地区农业水资源安全格局与调控

Security Pattern and Regulation of Agricultural Water Resources in Northwest China from the Perspective of Virtual Water Flow

西北地区在我国经济建设、社会稳定、国土安全方面都具有极其重要的战略地位,但水资源短缺、生态环境脆弱,当地经济发展与居民生活质量改善受制于稀缺的水资源。本文基于水足迹和虚拟水视角,分析了西北地区2000—2018年农业生产和贸易特征,以此明确虚拟水流动对当地水资源的影响。研究数据表明,2000—2018年西北地区农作物生产水足迹呈波动上升趋势;虚拟水流出规模随着水果、棉花输出量的增大而逐渐增加,2018年水果、棉花的虚拟水输出量为3.212×10^(11)m^(3),占到作物生产水足迹总量的69.8%;黄河流域是西北地区虚拟水的主要流入区,"奇策线"西北部是西北地区虚拟水的主要流出区。鉴于西北地区水资源严重短缺,而水果、棉花种植更多用于贸易以期带动经济的现状,优化作物种植和虚拟水贸易结构并与跨流域调水相结合,是实现实体水–虚拟水循环调控、缓解水资源供需矛盾、保障区域水安全的关键措施。

Northwest China is strategically crucial for China’s economic development, social stability, and national defense security. However, the shortage of water resources and its fragile ecological environment have been hindering local economic development and life quality improvement for local residents. In this study, we analyze the characteristics of agricultural production and trade in Northwest China from 2000 to 2018 from the perspective of water footprint and virtual water, and clarifies the impact of virtual water flow on local water resources. Research shows that the water footprint regarding crop production in Northwest China showed a fluctuating upward trend from 2000 to 2018. The outflow scale of virtual water gradually increases alongside with the transfer-out of fruits and cotton. The outflow of virtual water regarding fruits and cotton in Northwest China was 3.212×10^(11)m^(3) in 2018, accounting for 69.8% of the total water footprint regarding crop production. The Yellow River Basin is the primary inflow area of virtual water from Northwest China, and the region northwest to the “Qice line” is the primary outflow area of virtual water. Water shortage is severe in Northwest China and fruit and cotton are planted for trade to drive economic growth. Therefore, optimizing the crop planting and virtual water trade structures and encouraging inter-basin water transfer are key measures to regulate physical–virtual water cycle, alleviate the contradiction between water supply and demand, and ensure regional water security.